Hard-asset regime
Archive
Each dated note is frozen with the spots and macro that produced it.
52 dated notes · latest Sat 7 Nov 2026
Regime over time
November 2026
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MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
1 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.5Flow 4.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.1Flow 6.5Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.1Flow 4.8Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
0 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 3.8Flow 3.0Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.9Flow 4.9Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint —
October 2026
-
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
1 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.0Flow 3.3Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
0 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 3.7Flow 2.5Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.1Flow 4.9Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields were steady. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.6Flow 5.7Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.2Flow 5.4Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.9Flow 4.8Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
1 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.4Flow 3.9Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.9Flow 8.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.8Flow 6.4Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.1Flow 5.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.4Flow 5.7Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 7.0Flow 8.3Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.7Flow 7.5Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.2Flow 5.0Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 7.0Flow 8.0Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.3Flow 5.2Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.0Flow 5.0Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.3Flow 7.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.9Flow 4.9Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint —
September 2026
-
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.0Flow 5.0Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.8Flow 4.7Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.1Flow 5.2Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.9Flow 6.5Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
1 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.2Flow 3.6Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.7Flow 4.1Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.1Flow 5.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.4Flow 5.3Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.7Flow 4.6Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields were steady. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.6Flow 7.6Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.6Flow 5.7Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.3Flow 5.5Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields were steady. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 7.1Flow 8.5Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.5Flow 7.6Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.9Flow 8.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 7.1Flow 8.5Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields were steady. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.9Flow 8.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.4Flow 7.4Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint —
August 2026
-
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
1 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields were steady. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.4Flow 3.6Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.8Flow 6.0Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
1 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.4Flow 4.0Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
3 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.1Flow 5.1Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
HoldingHard-asset breadth holds with rates and credit still acting as gates
2 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 5.1Flow 4.8Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields were steady. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.3Flow 7.2Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads were stable to tighter, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.7Flow 7.5Credit 8.0Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
4 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields eased. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 6.6Flow 7.7Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
MixedHard-asset sleeves diverge as macro gates limit confirmation
1 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 4.2Flow 3.6Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint — -
ImprovingCross-sleeve breadth improves while credit remains contained
5 of 5 tracked hard-asset sleeves advanced; IG credit spreads widened, while real yields firmed. This is a rules-based market-state record, not a forecast.
Hard-asset case 7.1Flow 8.5Credit 7.5Geo / chokepoint —